Snow Season update
Season 2011 Season Outlook:
Last Updated: 12th of May @ 10:21:24PM from snowwatch.com.au
The La Nina pattern we have been in since last season has been weakening very fast over the last two weeks. As such we have seen a positive change in the the weather patterns of the southern hemisphere.
As evidenced by the latest snowfalls and those looking likely to come over the next few weeks, the low pressure systems have intensified and the high pressure systems are placing themselves in far better positions to allow strong cool systems to reach the mountains.
With the waters off WA and into the Bight warming we should see moisture feeding into these cool systems as they head east towards the mountains of VIC and NSW.
From what I first saw as a fairly normal/slow start to the season with La Nina slowly weakening now looks like we could be in for a good June in regards to snowfalls thanks to the speed of the La Nina breakdown.
If the SOI levels hover around the +3 to +8 area we could see some very good snowfalls, not the smaller falls we have been used to over the last few years but falls around 70-100cm due the the cold fronts reaching further north that last season….(as of today the SOI is sitting just above 6 down from 25 a couple of weeks ago).
Looking back over the last 30 years some of the best snowfalls have been on a weakening La Nina (1981, 1996, 2000). Although having said that there have been quite a few average La Nina years. A positive is that the worst seasons (1982, 1993, 2006) have been the opposite El Nino (drier pattern) years.
With all of the above falling into line I feel June to August could see some very good dumps of snow from intense storm activity which should see the snow depth increase dramatically. I’d be surprised if the Victorian resorts didn’t finally crack the 2m mark and NSW could even be up around 2.5m by the end of August.
I’ll be monitoring any changes in patterns leading up to the season and will advise of any changes or information that may strengthen my views.
Pete (The Frog) Taylor

